'No good outcome' if U.S., China clash

It's vital for Washington and Beijing to engage each other to avoid conflict, and a bifurcation would be "very hard" for countries including U.S. allies and partners that wish to preserve ties with both powers, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said Tuesday.

"No good outcome can arise from a conflict. It's vital for the U.S. and China to strive to engage each other to head off a clash, which would be disastrous for both sides and the world," Lee told the virtual 2021 Aspen Security Forum.

The two-day annual event hosts government leaders and former officials for discussion about issues ranging from lessons from Afghanistan, China's rise, cryptocurrencies and the Biden administration's trade agenda.

U.S.-China bilateral relations have "unfortunately" become more difficult during the last few years, but many countries still hope that the deterioration in the relationship can be checked, because "many U.S. friends and allies wish to preserve their extensive ties with both powers", Lee said.

He said the worsening of relations was not a burning issue that will explode tomorrow, but a progressive one with "very serious consequences".

Lee observed that there is "possible misunderstanding" on both sides. For example, he said some people in China believe that America is in "terminal decline" while some in the U.S. are treating the competitor as an adversary.

"I don't know whether Americans realize what a formidable adversary they would be taking on if they decide that China is an enemy," Lee said.

"China's not going to disappear. This is not the Soviet Union. It is not the Potemkin village front. This is a country with enormous dynamism, energy, talent and determination to take its place in the world again," he said.

There are many issues, disputes and grievances on both sides, but the reality is neither side can put the other one down, he added.

The prime minister recalled that U.S. President Joe Biden has said there will be "extreme competition", not necessarily a conflict, with China.

He said he hoped that the Biden administration's line is "clearly drawn", but it is not easy to maintain the line.

"Because I think within the U.S., there's a strong bipartisan consensus that the old model is broken, and you need to take a more robust approach, and one which will, to some considerable extent lead, at the very least to bifurcation — of technology, of access to talent, even of capital markets," Lee said.

Though there is pushback to globalization due to geopolitics and insecurity arising in recent years, particularly from the pandemic, the economic logic of globalization is still valid and more than ever, he noted.

With safeguards, firewalls and safety nets, the world could still reap most of the benefits of globalization but should be wary of another situation "where you have bifurcation and then countries have to choose", which is not a stable situation, he said.

"But here, when all of the countries in Asia and many of the countries in Europe have China as their biggest trading partner and America as a very major friend, and sometimes ally, to have to have a bifurcation means they've got to split down the middle of many societies, which I think is going to be very hard," Lee said.

At the same time, the world needs new areas of cooperation for example on digital and green economies, data flows and climate change.

"If we are at loggerheads on globalization, fundamentally, I think all those issues are going to become even more intractable than they already are, and that would not just be a pity, it could well be a disaster for the world," Lee said.

Take digital economy as example, it is "not really practical" to take all of the electronics supply chain and put it in the U.S..

"It's such a globally diversified operation, and China is so deeply engaged in it that to cut China out of it — you can't even — by the time you're unable to buy a DJI drone to monitor forest fires in the U.S., I think there'll be many more hard choices you're going to make if you will take the bifurcation to its extreme limits; it doesn't make sense," Lee said.