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By Song Shengxia Chinese officials and economists Sunday ruled out that the massive earthquake that pummeled Japan on Friday would have a long-term drag factor on trade with China. However, they warned that the disaster's knock-on effects could adversely influence China's inflationary pressure in the second half of the year. Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming said Sunday that any effects on trade brought about by the quake would be temporary. Bilateral trade jumped 28.8 percent year-on-year to $48.85 billion during the first two months of 2011, with Japan now the third-largest trade partner for China behind the EU and the US, China's General Administration of Customs said Thursday. China's trade deficit with Japan surged 64.5 percent to reach $9.33 billion during the period. The quake has crippled industry and infrastructure along Japan's northern Pacific coast and disrupted production, electricity and transportation. "The shutdown of factories and closure of ports in Japan will cause a supply chain disruption and affect exports to China," Feng Zhaokui, vice director of the All-China Association for Japanese Economy Studies, told the Global Times. Tourism will also suffer, as Japan's northern coast remains a popular tourist destination for Chinese visitors, he said. China's National Tourism Administration warned tourists Sunday to be prudent before traveling to Japan, with many planned visits already having been called off. By Saturday, tourist groups to Japan departing from Shanghai Airport numbered 167, down 75.8 percent, with individual traveler figures having dropped 43.9 percent. "We may see trade with Japan down in the later part of March and April, but in the medium term, things will perk up as reconstruction generates demand," Feng noted. Toyota has shut down three of its factories, and Nissan also halted operations at five factories in the quake-hit regions. Zeng Zhiling, director of JD Power Asia Pacific Forecasting, told the Global Times that the quake will have little impact on China's auto industry since its manufacturing is highly localized. "Only the imports of Japan-made models such as the Lexus, which accounts for a small market share, could be squeezed. There is also a possibility that the disruption of transport and production in Japan could affect the supply of key auto parts and delay auto-production lines in China," he said. However, he warned that the demand for commodities such as steel, iron ore and building materials generated from post-quake reconstruction could push up prices of these materials in the international market and add to the already high inflationary pressure in China. |
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